Widzew Łódź 1-2 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Motor Lublin make the trip to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Motor Lublin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Motor Lublin's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Widzew Łódź lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 4–3 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Motor Lublin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Motor Lublin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 43% | Motor Lublin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.50 xG and Motor Lublin 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.819 / defence 0.982 | Motor Lublin attack 0.781 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.199. Motor Lublin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Widzew Łódź games / 28 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 51% | Draw 26% | Motor Lublin 23%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Motor Lublin 4.35. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 30% | Motor Lublin 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 51% | Draw 26% | Motor Lublin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.50 / Motor Lublin 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.819 / def 0.982 | Motor Lublin attack 0.781 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Motor Lublin xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 2 Motor Lublin.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 51% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Motor Lublin?
Record (1 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 0 | Motor Lublin 0W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Motor Lublin in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Motor Lublin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Motor Lublin's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Motor Lublin's attack (0.78x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 62/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.83
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.42
0.92
Motor Lublin xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
5%
19.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.92 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 10W 6D 12L from 28 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Motor Lublin, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 10L across 28 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.43 for Motor Lublin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 7W 2D 5L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Motor Lublin's away record stands at 5W 3D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.46 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Motor Lublin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 10W 6D 12L in their last 28 games (1.29 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 11W 7D 10L in their last 28 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Motor Lublin away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.64 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Motor Lublin won 3-0 on 24 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Motor Lublin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
2
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Motor Lublin?
From 5 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Motor Lublin have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-2 Motor Lublin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 36%, Motor Lublin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Widzew Łódź) and 57% (Motor Lublin).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 36% of games; Motor Lublin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Motor Lublin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 50% of Motor Lublin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 57% of Motor Lublin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Widzew Łódź 1-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.50 xG and Motor Lublin 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Motor Lublin outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Motor Lublin attack 0.78 / defence 1.24, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 51% | Draw 26% | Motor Lublin 23%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Motor Lublin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 43%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.29 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.