Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at : 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Cracovia Krakow in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Widzew Łódź, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 55% versus Cracovia Krakow 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Cracovia Krakow 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.42 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.794 / defence 0.965 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.842 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Widzew Łódź's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Widzew Łódź games / 47 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 26%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Cracovia Krakow 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 70% | Cracovia Krakow 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.42 / Cracovia Krakow 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.794 / def 0.965 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.842 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cracovia Krakow xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 43% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (8 meetings): Widzew Łódź 3W | Draws 4 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.79x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.84x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
43%
2.32
31%
3.19
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.47
1.05
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.05 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 13W 14D 20L from 47 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 12W 18D 17L across 47 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.15 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 8W 9D 6L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 4W 8D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.15 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 14D 20L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 12W 18D 17L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.43 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
4
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 61%, Cracovia Krakow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Widzew Łódź) and 56% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 39%; Cracovia Krakow in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 48% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 56% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.