Ruch Chorzów 2-3 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ruch Chorzów welcome Widzew Łódź to Stadion Śląski in Ekstraklasa (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 5D 4L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Widzew Łódź stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Widzew Łódź's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Ruch Chorzów's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Ruch Chorzów, 1 for Widzew Łódź and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Nov 2023, ended Ruch Chorzów 1–2 Widzew Łódź — a Widzew Łódź win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ruch Chorzów in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruch Chorzów 54% versus Widzew Łódź 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruch Chorzów 50% | Widzew Łódź 50%). Note also that Widzew Łódź surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Ruch Chorzów recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruch Chorzów 0.93 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.733 / defence 1.012 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.020 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.076. Ruch Chorzów's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Ruch Chorzów's last 28 games and Widzew Łódź's last 62.
Result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 28% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 37%. Fair-value odds: Ruch Chorzów 3.59 | Draw 2.86 | Widzew Łódź 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ruch Chorzów 40% (last 10 home games) | Widzew Łódź 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadion Śląski • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 28% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Ruch Chorzów 0.93 / Widzew Łódź 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.733 / def 1.012 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.020 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Ruch Chorzów xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Widzew Łódź xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź FAQs
What time does Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadion Śląski.
What was the final score in Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź?
Ruch Chorzów 2 - 3 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Śląski.
What competition is Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 29) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Ruch Chorzów a 28% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ruch Chorzów's attack at 0.73x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Ruch Chorzów's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ruch Chorzów's last 28 games and Widzew Łódź's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
28%
3.59
35%
2.86
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Ruch Chorzów xG
Total xG
2.04
1.11
Widzew Łódź xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.4 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Ruch Chorzów and 1.11 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruch Chorzów's recent record stands at 2W 14D 12L from 28 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 11L across 28 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Widzew Łódź by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruch Chorzów heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ruch Chorzów have managed 2W 7D 5L from their last 14 home games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 2W 6D 6L across their last 14 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Ruch Chorzów are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź in 61%.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruch Chorzów
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Ruch Chorzów (Home) vs Widzew Łódź (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruch Chorzów
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź Form FAQs
What form are Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Ruch Chorzów have gone 2W 14D 12L in their last 28 games (0.71 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 11W 6D 11L in their last 28 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruch Chorzów at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Ruch Chorzów's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruch Chorzów at home: 0.93 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ruch Chorzów
0
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Ruch Chorzów 2-3 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruch Chorzów see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruch Chorzów 43%, Widzew Łódź 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ruch Chorzów) and 50% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Ruch Chorzów keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ruch Chorzów have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruch Chorzów home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Ruch Chorzów's games and 79% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ruch Chorzów's recent games and 50% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Ruch Chorzów's recent matches and 64% of Widzew Łódź's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Ruch Chorzów 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Ruch Chorzów 2-3 at Stadion Śląski, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruch Chorzów 0.93 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.11 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ruch Chorzów beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Widzew Łódź outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruch Chorzów attack 0.73 / defence 1.01 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruch Chorzów 28% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 37%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruch Chorzów 50%, Widzew Łódź 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.