Korona Kielce 4-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Korona Kielce at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Suzuki Arena to face Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 19 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Korona Kielce have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Suzuki Arena, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.20 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Korona Kielce, 0 for Radomiak Radom and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 58% versus Radomiak Radom 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 44% | Radomiak Radom 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.85 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 1.027 / defence 1.167 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.073 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.079. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Korona Kielce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Korona Kielce games / 62 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 47% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 26%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Radomiak Radom 3.85. Korona Kielce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Korona Kielce as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Korona Kielce 70% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 47% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Korona Kielce 1.85 / Radomiak Radom 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 1.027 / def 1.167 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.073 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Radomiak Radom xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Korona Kielce 4 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 47% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
Record (3 meetings): Korona Kielce 2W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (1.03) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.07x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.70
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
3.20
1.35
Radomiak Radom xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
4%
24.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.35 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Korona Kielce come into this having played 62 games, going 16W 20D 26L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.27 PPG from 62 outings (21W 16D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.27 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Korona Kielce's home form reads 12W 10D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.39 points per game from 31 outings (12W 7D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.10 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 16W 20D 26L in their last 62 games (1.10 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 21W 16D 25L in their last 62 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.48 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Korona Kielce have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 58%, Radomiak Radom 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Korona Kielce) and 52% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 42% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 52% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Korona Kielce run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Radomiak Radom 4-0 at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.85 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.35 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.03 / defence 1.17 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.07 / defence 1.25, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 47% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 26%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 44%, Radomiak Radom 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.10 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.