Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Puszcza Niepołomice travel to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to take on Raków Częstochowa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this season.
Puszcza Niepołomice — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Raków Częstochowa have won 1, Puszcza Niepołomice 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Puszcza Niepołomice trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 51% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 42% | Puszcza Niepołomice 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.36 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.060 / defence 0.936 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.760 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 0.997. Data: 43 Raków Częstochowa games / 43 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 52% | Draw 28% | Puszcza Niepołomice 19%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Puszcza Niepołomice 5.26. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Puszcza Niepołomice 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 52% | Draw 28% | Puszcza Niepołomice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.36 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.060 / def 0.936 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.760 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.535 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 52% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (2 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 1 | Puszcza Niepołomice 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Puszcza Niepołomice's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Puszcza Niepołomice's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
52%
1.90
28%
3.57
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.07
0.71
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.90
52%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
5%
20.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.71 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 19W 12D 12L from 43 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Puszcza Niepołomice, meanwhile, have gone 10W 18D 15L across 43 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Puszcza Niepołomice heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 11W 6D 4L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record stands at 2W 7D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.14 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice in 60%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 19W 12D 12L in their last 43 games (1.60 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 10W 18D 15L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.86 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Puszcza Niepołomice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Puszcza Niepołomice in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Puszcza Niepołomice specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Puszcza Niepołomice see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 43%, Puszcza Niepołomice 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Raków Częstochowa) and 29% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Puszcza Niepołomice in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 48% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 29% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Puszcza Niepołomice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.36 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.71 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.76 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 52% | Draw 28% | Puszcza Niepołomice 19%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 42%, Puszcza Niepołomice 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.