Radomiak Radom 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Radomiak Radom take on Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Radomiaka Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom at Stadion Radomiaka Radom this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.50 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Radomiak Radom's 30% rate and Piast Gliwice's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 38% versus Piast Gliwice 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 38% | Piast Gliwice 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 0.93 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.006 / defence 1.098 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.912 / defence 0.676. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 0.926. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.676 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Radomiak Radom games / 40 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 33% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 33%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Piast Gliwice 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 30% | Piast Gliwice 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 33% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Radomiak Radom 0.93 / Piast Gliwice 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.006 / def 1.098 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.912 / def 0.676 | league avg home 1.367 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Piast Gliwice xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 33% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
Record (4 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 2 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.01) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
34%
2.97
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
1.86
0.93
Piast Gliwice xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 14.5 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.93 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 15W 8D 17L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 15W 12D 13L from 40 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.32 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 8W 7D 4L from 19 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.02 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 8D 17L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 12D 13L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.16 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
5
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Piast Gliwice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 37%, Piast Gliwice 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Radomiak Radom and 16% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 42%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 47% of games; Piast Gliwice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 37% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 16% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 0.93 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.93 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.01 / defence 1.10 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.91 / defence 0.68, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 33% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 38%, Piast Gliwice 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.32 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.