Legia Warszawa 3-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Widzew Łódź travel to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Legia Warszawa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Widzew Łódź 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 50% versus Widzew Łódź 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 53% | Widzew Łódź 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.89 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.342 / defence 0.809 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.983 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.907. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Legia Warszawa games / 40 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 64% | Draw 24% | Widzew Łódź 12%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Widzew Łódź 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Legia Warszawa 50% | Widzew Łódź 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 64% | Draw 24% | Widzew Łódź 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.89 / Widzew Łódź 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.342 / def 0.809 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.983 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.907 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Widzew Łódź xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Legia Warszawa 3 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 64% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź?
Record (2 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.34) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
64%
1.57
24%
4.18
12%
8.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.61
0.72
Widzew Łódź xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
8.17
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
2%
54.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.72 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 38 games, going 22W 10D 6L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.18 PPG from 38 outings (12W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 13W 5D 0L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 1.17 points per game from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.11 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 22W 10D 6L in their last 38 games (2.00 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.44 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Legia Warszawa
2
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 5, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 61%, Widzew Łódź 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Legia Warszawa) and 39% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 33%; Widzew Łódź in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 44% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 39% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Widzew Łódź 3-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.89 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.72 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.34 / defence 0.81 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 64% | Draw 24% | Widzew Łódź 12%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 53%, Widzew Łódź 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.