Radomiak Radom 1-1 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 46%, yet in-form Motor Lublin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Motor Lublin make the trip to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:45 UK time.

Current Form

Radomiak Radom's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Motor Lublin (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Motor Lublin have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Motor Lublin arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Motor Lublin edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2025, ended Radomiak Radom 2–2 Motor Lublin — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Motor Lublin — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 70% and Motor Lublin 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Motor Lublin 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.62 xG and Motor Lublin 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.011 / defence 0.998 | Motor Lublin attack 1.104 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.086. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 60 games and Motor Lublin's last 60.

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 27% | Motor Lublin 27%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.18 | Draw 3.70 | Motor Lublin 3.70. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Motor Lublin (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 50% (last 10 home games) | Motor Lublin 60% (last 10 away games).

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