Gornik Zabrze 3-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla plays host to Gornik Zabrze versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Cracovia Krakow hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cracovia Krakow have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Gornik Zabrze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Cracovia Krakow 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 47% | Cracovia Krakow 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.20 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.082 / defence 0.954 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.790 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.102. Cracovia Krakow's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Gornik Zabrze games / 60 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 24%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Cracovia Krakow 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 70% | Cracovia Krakow 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.20 / Cracovia Krakow 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.082 / def 0.954 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.790 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Cracovia Krakow xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Gornik Zabrze 3 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 43% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (9 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 2W | Draws 2 | Cracovia Krakow 5W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 1.08x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.79x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
43%
2.30
32%
3.10
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.03
0.83
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.83 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 24W 14D 22L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 23W 18D 19L from 60 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.45 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (16W 5D 9L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 13W 7D 10L from 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.48 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 18D 19L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.77 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won 5-0 on 3 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 3-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 50%, Cracovia Krakow 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gornik Zabrze) and 53% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 37%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 57% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 53% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Cracovia Krakow 3-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.20 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.83 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.79 / defence 0.79, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 24%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Cracovia Krakow 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.43 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.