Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 39%, yet in-form Stal Mielec provide a compelling counter-argument — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice welcome Stal Mielec to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 3). Kick-off is Monday 7 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 2 games, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 0D 2L — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.50 conceded. However, 3.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Stal Mielec — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Stal Mielec's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Stal Mielec's 1.40 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Puszcza Niepołomice's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.24 xG and Stal Mielec 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Stal Mielec attack 0.950 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 0.976. Data: built from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 2 games and Stal Mielec's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 39% | Draw 31% | Stal Mielec 30%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.57 | Draw 3.27 | Stal Mielec 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Puszcza Niepołomice are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stal Mielec (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Puszcza Niepołomice's last 2 games and Stal Mielec's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's sample (Puszcza Niepołomice 2 games, Stal Mielec 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 3 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 7 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 39% | Draw 31% | Stal Mielec 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.24 / Stal Mielec 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Stal Mielec attack 0.950 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.432 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Stal Mielec xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec FAQs
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 7 August 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 0 Stal Mielec.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 3) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 39% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Stal Mielec will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Puszcza Niepołomice's attack rating (0.86) and Stal Mielec's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 2 games and Stal Mielec's last 36, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.27
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.30
1.07
Stal Mielec xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.07 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Puszcza Niepołomice's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 0L across 2 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stal Mielec by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Puszcza Niepołomice heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stal Mielec in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
Stal Mielec
Early Season
Puszcza Niepołomice (Home) vs Stal Mielec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
Stal Mielec
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec Form FAQs
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Puszcza Niepołomice or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Puszcza Niepołomice have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 12 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Stal Mielec have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Puszcza Niepołomice's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
0
Draws
3
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Stal Mielec?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, Stal Mielec have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Stal Mielec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2025: Puszcza Niepołomice 2-3 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Stal Mielec?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Puszcza Niepołomice and Stal Mielec matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 50% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Puszcza Niepołomice and Stal Mielec matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Puszcza Niepołomice's matches and 50% of Stal Mielec's.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Stal Mielec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 50% of Stal Mielec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Puszcza Niepołomice edge out Stal Mielec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Stal Mielec 1-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.24 xG and Stal Mielec 1.07 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stal Mielec landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Stal Mielec attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 39% | Draw 31% | Stal Mielec 30%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 100%, Stal Mielec 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Stal Mielec arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Puszcza Niepołomice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Puszcza Niepołomice conceded 0 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line. Stal Mielec managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.