Jagiellonia 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Jagiellonia versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 4 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Jagiellonia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Jagiellonia's favour (1.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Jagiellonia 0W, Widzew Łódź 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 69% versus Widzew Łódź 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 50% | Widzew Łódź 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.80 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.227 / defence 1.023 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.949 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 0.999. Data: 36 Jagiellonia games / 36 Widzew Łódź games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 19%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Widzew Łódź 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 80% | Widzew Łódź 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 4 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Jagiellonia 1.80 / Widzew Łódź 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.227 / def 1.023 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.949 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.445 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Widzew Łódź xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 4 August 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Jagiellonia 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 56% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
Record (2 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.23) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.95x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
56%
1.78
25%
4.05
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.77
0.97
Widzew Łódź xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
3%
31.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.97 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia come into this having played 36 games, going 10W 14D 12L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.22 PPG from 36 outings (12W 8D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.22 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jagiellonia's home form reads 9W 4D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 1.28 points per game from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 10W 14D 12L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.72 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jagiellonia go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 6, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Widzew Łódź 1-3 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 72%, Widzew Łódź 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Jagiellonia) and 39% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 39%; Widzew Łódź in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Jagiellonia's games and 39% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 39% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.80 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.97 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.23 / defence 1.02 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 19%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 50%, Widzew Łódź 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.22 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.