Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Puszcza Niepołomice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Puszcza Niepołomice are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.30 for Cracovia Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 73% versus Cracovia Krakow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 54% | Cracovia Krakow 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.898 / defence 1.320 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.938 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.115. Data: 11 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 44 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 28% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 41%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Cracovia Krakow 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 80% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 28% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 / Cracovia Krakow 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.898 / def 1.320 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.938 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Cracovia Krakow xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 28% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Puszcza Niepołomice's attack rating (0.90) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.94x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 11/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
28%
3.51
31%
3.27
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.50
1.38
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
13.96
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.38 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Puszcza Niepołomice come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 3D 6L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Puszcza Niepołomice's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.82 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.27 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.60 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Puszcza Niepołomice or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Puszcza Niepołomice have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cracovia Krakow have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
1
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 80%, Cracovia Krakow 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 20% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 60%; Cracovia Krakow in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 20% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 20% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.38 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.90 / defence 1.32 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.94 / defence 0.84, drawn from 11/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 28% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 41%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 54%, Cracovia Krakow 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.