Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pogon Szczecin face Widzew Łódź.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season.
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 1.20 PPG lead over Widzew Łódź (2.10 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 7 wins from 8 meetings, with Widzew Łódź managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 54% versus Widzew Łódź 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 48% | Widzew Łódź 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.41 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.022 / defence 0.794 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.926 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Pogon Szczecin games / 45 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 43% | Draw 34% | Widzew Łódź 22%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Widzew Łódź 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Widzew Łódź 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 43% | Draw 34% | Widzew Łódź 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.41 / Widzew Łódź 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.022 / def 0.794 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.926 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Widzew Łódź xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 43% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
Record (8 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 7W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.02) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.93x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
43%
2.31
34%
2.90
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.39
0.98
Widzew Łódź xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
5%
18.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.98 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 19W 9D 16L from 44 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 19L across 44 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.11 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 11W 5D 6L from 22 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 16L in their last 44 games (1.50 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.73 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 0-4 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 7, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 59%, Widzew Łódź 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Pogon Szczecin) and 46% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 50% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 46% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.