Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 0W 1D 6L from 7 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pogon Szczecin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 3 for Slask Wroclaw and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 54% and Slask Wroclaw 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 38% | Slask Wroclaw 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.44 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.113 / defence 1.018 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.896 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Pogon Szczecin games / 13 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 21% | Slask Wroclaw 15%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Slask Wroclaw 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.44 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Slask Wroclaw 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 21% | Slask Wroclaw 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 65% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.44 / Slask Wroclaw 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.113 / def 1.018 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.896 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Slask Wroclaw xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw is scheduled to kick off at 19:30 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 64% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (8 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 3W | Draws 2 | Slask Wroclaw 3W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.11x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.78
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.62
1.18
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
9%
11.45
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
1%
74.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.18 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 7W 4D 2L from 13 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 8L across 13 games — 0.69 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 1.23 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slask Wroclaw heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 0W 1D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slask Wroclaw's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.31 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 85%.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 games (1.92 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.00 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
3
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Pogon Szczecin.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 57%, Slask Wroclaw at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Pogon Szczecin and 86% for Slask Wroclaw. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 100% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 86% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.