Pogon Szczecin 4-0 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera plays host to Pogon Szczecin versus GKS Katowice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
GKS Katowice (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GKS Katowice's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.70 for GKS Katowice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Pogon Szczecin 0W, GKS Katowice 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with GKS Katowice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
GKS Katowice — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 38% versus GKS Katowice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 50% | GKS Katowice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.93 xG and GKS Katowice 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.223 / defence 1.007 | GKS Katowice attack 0.924 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.179. Data: 60 Pogon Szczecin games / 26 GKS Katowice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 57% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 21%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | GKS Katowice 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 40% | GKS Katowice 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 57% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.93 / GKS Katowice 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.223 / def 1.007 | GKS Katowice attack 0.924 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.10
GKS Katowice xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice?
Pogon Szczecin 4 - 0 GKS Katowice.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 57% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice?
Record (1 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 0 | GKS Katowice 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. GKS Katowice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against GKS Katowice's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — GKS Katowice's attack (0.92x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.55
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.03
1.10
GKS Katowice xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
3%
32.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.10 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 26 games, going 13W 5D 8L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GKS Katowice sit at 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.38 for GKS Katowice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 10W 1D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, GKS Katowice have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.35 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 13W 5D 8L in their last 26 games (1.69 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 10W 6D 10L in their last 26 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or GKS Katowice away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.38 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or GKS Katowice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, GKS Katowice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GKS Katowice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
2
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice?
From 4 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, GKS Katowice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-1 GKS Katowice.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 31%, GKS Katowice 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Pogon Szczecin) and 54% (GKS Katowice).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; GKS Katowice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play GKS Katowice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 46% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 54% of GKS Katowice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, GKS Katowice in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 4-0 hammering of GKS Katowice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat GKS Katowice 4-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.93 xG and GKS Katowice 1.10 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GKS Katowice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against GKS Katowice attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 57% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 21%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 50%, GKS Katowice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.69 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.