Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Piast Gliwice (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Piast Gliwice face Wisla Plock.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Piast Gliwice (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wisla Plock have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Piast Gliwice. A 0.60 PPG lead over Wisla Plock (1.10 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Piast Gliwice have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Wisla Plock in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Piast Gliwice, 2 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 59% versus Wisla Plock 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 56% | Wisla Plock 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 2.31 xG and Wisla Plock 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.228 / defence 1.214 | Wisla Plock attack 0.905 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.278. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Piast Gliwice games / 39 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 56% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 20%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Wisla Plock 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Piast Gliwice (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 70% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 56% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG Piast Gliwice 2.31 / Wisla Plock 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.228 / def 1.214 | Wisla Plock attack 0.905 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Wisla Plock xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Friday 23 April 2027 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 56% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock?
Record (6 meetings): Piast Gliwice 4W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 2W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 1.23x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.91x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 41/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.21
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.71
1.40
Wisla Plock xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
10%
10.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
2%
49.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.40 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 39 games, going 14W 9D 16L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.28 PPG from 39 outings (13W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.28 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 8W 5D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (5W 7D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 0.95 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Wisla Plock away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.45 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
2
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Wisla Plock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 55%, Wisla Plock 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Piast Gliwice) and 50% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Piast Gliwice's games and 70% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 50% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.