Nieciecza 2-4 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Widzew Łódź travel to Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza to take on Nieciecza. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 October 2025, 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nieciecza stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Nieciecza have gone 0W 1D 3L this season (4 games, 0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza this season.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Nieciecza) versus 1.00 (Widzew Łódź). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Nieciecza in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nieciecza 60% versus Widzew Łódź 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 40% | Widzew Łódź 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.36 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.758 / defence 1.440 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.998 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.192. Nieciecza's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Nieciecza games / 44 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 30% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 45%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Widzew Łódź 2.22. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nieciecza 75% | Widzew Łódź 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 30% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Nieciecza 1.36 / Widzew Łódź 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.758 / def 1.440 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.998 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Widzew Łódź xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź?
Nieciecza 2 - 4 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 30% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Nieciecza and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Widzew Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nieciecza and Widzew Łódź in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nieciecza's attack at 0.76x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Nieciecza's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
30%
3.34
25%
4.02
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
3.07
1.71
Widzew Łódź xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
5%
18.53
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.71 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Nieciecza have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 2W 3D 5L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nieciecza on 0.90 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nieciecza have posted 0.25 PPG from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That actually lags their 0.90 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Nieciecza are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Nieciecza's home record (0.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 0.25 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Nieciecza or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nieciecza have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nieciecza
0
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Widzew Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 0, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Widzew Łódź 1-0 Nieciecza.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nieciecza at 75%, Widzew Łódź at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Nieciecza and 75% for Widzew Łódź. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Nieciecza's games and 75% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Nieciecza's matches and 75% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do Nieciecza and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Nieciecza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Nieciecza 2-4 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.36 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.71 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Widzew Łódź outscored their 1.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.76 / defence 1.44 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.00 / defence 1.16, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 30% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 45%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 40%, Widzew Łódź 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nieciecza 0.90 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Nieciecza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.