Legia Warszawa 4-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 3 for Radomiak Radom and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 57% versus Radomiak Radom 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 49% | Radomiak Radom 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.49 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.015 / defence 1.005 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.099 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.113. Data: 38 Legia Warszawa games / 37 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 42% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 30%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Radomiak Radom 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 60% | Radomiak Radom 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 42% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.49 / Radomiak Radom 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.015 / def 1.005 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.099 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Radomiak Radom xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Legia Warszawa 4 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 42% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
Record (6 meetings): Legia Warszawa 3W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.01) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.49
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.72
1.23
Radomiak Radom xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
7%
14.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.23 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 17W 12D 8L from 37 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 18L across 37 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 8W 6D 4L from 18 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 7W 3D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.24 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 17W 12D 8L in their last 37 games (1.70 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 11W 8D 18L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.67 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Radomiak Radom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 61%, Radomiak Radom 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Legia Warszawa) and 56% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 33%; Radomiak Radom in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 33% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 56% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Radomiak Radom 4-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.49 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.23 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.10 / defence 1.13, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 42% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 30%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 49%, Radomiak Radom 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.