Puszcza Niepołomice 2-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Puszcza Niepołomice — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Puszcza Niepołomice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Legia Warszawa's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Puszcza Niepołomice's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Legia Warszawa 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Puszcza Niepołomice trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 60% versus Legia Warszawa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 38% | Legia Warszawa 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.058 / defence 1.054 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.110 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.093. Data: 37 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 37 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 32% | Draw 29% | Legia Warszawa 39%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Legia Warszawa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Puszcza Niepołomice 70% | Legia Warszawa 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 32% | Draw 29% | Legia Warszawa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 / Legia Warszawa 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.058 / def 1.054 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.110 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Legia Warszawa xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa?
Puszcza Niepołomice 2 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 32% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa?
Record (2 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 2 | Legia Warszawa 0W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
32%
3.17
29%
3.39
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.40
1.28
Legia Warszawa xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.28 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Puszcza Niepołomice come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 14D 14L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.76 PPG from 37 outings (18W 11D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Puszcza Niepołomice's home form reads 7W 9D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.78 points per game from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.49 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 9W 14D 14L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 18W 11D 8L in their last 37 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.67 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Puszcza Niepołomice or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Puszcza Niepołomice have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Puszcza Niepołomice's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
3
Draws
1
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Legia Warszawa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Legia Warszawa 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 72%, Legia Warszawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 39% (Legia Warszawa).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 39% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.28 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.11 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 32% | Draw 29% | Legia Warszawa 39%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 38%, Legia Warszawa 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.