Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lech Poznan (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lech Poznan face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Poznan to take on Lech Poznan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2026, 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lech Poznan have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lech Poznan's home record at Stadion Poznan: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Lech Poznan are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Lech Poznan have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Radomiak Radom have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Lech Poznan winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lech Poznan and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Lech Poznan trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Radomiak Radom trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lech Poznan 65% and Radomiak Radom 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 68% | Radomiak Radom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 2.14 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.182 / defence 0.809 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.714 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Data: 39 Lech Poznan games / 41 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 67% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 9%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 1.49 | Draw 4.17 | Radomiak Radom 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Lech Poznan (67%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Lech Poznan 60% | Radomiak Radom 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Poznan • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 67% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 49% | xG Lech Poznan 2.14 / Radomiak Radom 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.182 / def 0.809 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.714 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Radomiak Radom xG
49%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 18:15 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Stadion Poznan.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Poznan.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 67% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 9% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
Record (10 meetings): Lech Poznan 5W | Draws 4 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lech Poznan's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
67%
1.49
24%
4.17
9%
11.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.88
0.74
Radomiak Radom xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
11.21
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
1%
95.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.74 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Lech Poznan have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 21W 13D 6L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lech Poznan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 12W 13D 15L from 40 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lech Poznan have posted 1.90 PPG from 20 outings (10W 8D 2L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 8D 10L from 20 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.32 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lech Poznan have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 21W 13D 6L in their last 40 games (1.90 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 13D 15L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Lech Poznan's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 1.90 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lech Poznan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Lech Poznan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lech Poznan
4
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lech Poznan at 75%, Radomiak Radom at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Lech Poznan and 60% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lech Poznan's games and 65% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Lech Poznan's matches and 60% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.