Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Korona Kielce (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Korona Kielce face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Exbud Arena to face Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Korona Kielce have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Exbud Arena, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Korona Kielce. A 0.70 PPG lead over Radomiak Radom (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Korona Kielce have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with Radomiak Radom managing just 2 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Korona Kielce winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Korona Kielce and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Korona Kielce 54% and Radomiak Radom 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 36% | Radomiak Radom 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.98 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.922 / defence 1.005 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.791 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Korona Kielce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Korona Kielce games / 44 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 56% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 17%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Korona Kielce (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Korona Kielce as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Korona Kielce 70% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Exbud Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 56% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Korona Kielce 1.98 / Radomiak Radom 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.922 / def 1.005 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.791 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Radomiak Radom xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Exbud Arena.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Exbud Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 56% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
Record (8 meetings): Korona Kielce 5W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (0.92) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.79x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
56%
1.80
28%
3.63
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
3.04
1.06
Radomiak Radom xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
2%
43.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.06 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Korona Kielce come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 13D 16L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (13W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.18 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Korona Kielce's home form reads 8W 8D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (2W 8D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Korona Kielce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.39 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.52 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Korona Kielce have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 62%, Radomiak Radom 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Korona Kielce) and 62% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Korona Kielce's games and 67% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 62% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.