Jagiellonia 3-2 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chorten Arena plays host to Jagiellonia versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 27 July 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Jagiellonia (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Chorten Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Chorten Arena than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Jagiellonia, 1.30 for Widzew Łódź — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Widzew Łódź in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Jagiellonia are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Jagiellonia winning.
The historical record gives Jagiellonia a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 60% versus Widzew Łódź 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 51% | Widzew Łódź 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.33 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.859 / defence 1.259 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.912 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.318. Data: 35 Jagiellonia games / 35 Widzew Łódź games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 33% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 42%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Widzew Łódź 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Widzew Łódź 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jul 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 33% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Jagiellonia 1.33 / Widzew Łódź 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.859 / def 1.259 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.912 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Widzew Łódź xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 27 July 2025 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Jagiellonia 3 - 2 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 33% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
Record (6 meetings): Jagiellonia 4W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (0.86) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.91x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
33%
2.99
25%
4.01
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.84
1.51
Widzew Łódź xG
2.99
33%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.51 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia come into this having played 35 games, going 17W 10D 8L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.23 PPG from 35 outings (12W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Jagiellonia's home form reads 8W 6D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 0.82 points per game from 17 outings (3W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.11 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 17W 10D 8L in their last 35 games (1.74 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 7D 16L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.76 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
From 9 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 6, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Jagiellonia 0-2 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 65%, Widzew Łódź 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Jagiellonia) and 53% (Widzew Łódź). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Jagiellonia's games and 65% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Jagiellonia's matches and 53% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Widzew Łódź 3-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.33 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.51 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.86 / defence 1.26 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 33% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 42%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 51%, Widzew Łódź 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.