Jagiellonia 6-0 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź encounter.

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Analysis

ŁKS Łódź make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Jagiellonia (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

ŁKS Łódź have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

ŁKS Łódź's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form ledger tips toward Jagiellonia. A 0.90 PPG lead over ŁKS Łódź (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Jagiellonia 2–2 ŁKS Łódź — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

ŁKS Łódź — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 72% and ŁKS Łódź 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 80% | ŁKS Łódź 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.21 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.287 / defence 0.988 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.778 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.142. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.287 — their 2.21 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. ŁKS Łódź's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jagiellonia's projected output up. ŁKS Łódź's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Jagiellonia's last 59 games and ŁKS Łódź's last 25.

Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 66% | Draw 22% | ŁKS Łódź 12%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.52 | Draw 4.48 | ŁKS Łódź 8.45. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (66%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jagiellonia's last 10 home games and ŁKS Łódź's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jagiellonia 60% (last 10 home games) | ŁKS Łódź 50% (last 10 away games).

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