Jagiellonia 3-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce meet at Chorten Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jagiellonia have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 6W 2D 2L at Chorten Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chorten Arena.
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Jagiellonia's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Jagiellonia 2W, Korona Kielce 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 3–0 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Korona Kielce half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 65% versus Korona Kielce 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 72% | Korona Kielce 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.68 xG and Korona Kielce 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.149 / defence 0.977 | Korona Kielce attack 0.714 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.184. Data: 46 Jagiellonia games / 46 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 58% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 18%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Korona Kielce 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 50% | Korona Kielce 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 58% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Jagiellonia 1.68 / Korona Kielce 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.149 / def 0.977 | Korona Kielce attack 0.714 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Korona Kielce xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?
Jagiellonia 3 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce part of?
Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 58% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce?
Record (4 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 1 | Korona Kielce 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.15x the league average against Korona Kielce's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.71x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
58%
1.74
24%
4.15
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.50
0.83
Korona Kielce xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
3%
29.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.83 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia come into this having played 46 games, going 26W 10D 10L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.09 PPG from 46 outings (11W 17D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Jagiellonia's home form reads 16W 4D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.78 points per game from 23 outings (3W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.07 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 26W 10D 10L in their last 46 games (1.91 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 11W 17D 18L in their last 46 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Korona Kielce away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.26 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 4-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
2
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce?
From 9 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 5, Korona Kielce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 56%, Korona Kielce 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Jagiellonia) and 39% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Korona Kielce in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 48% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 39% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Korona Kielce 3-1 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.68 xG and Korona Kielce 0.83 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Korona Kielce attack 0.71 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 58% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 18%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 72%, Korona Kielce 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.