Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia meet at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Gornik Zabrze (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Gornik Zabrze have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 3 for Jagiellonia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–4 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gornik Zabrze 52% and Jagiellonia 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 46% | Jagiellonia 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.87 xG and Jagiellonia 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.168 / defence 0.818 | Jagiellonia attack 1.364 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.198. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Gornik Zabrze games / 56 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 49% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 26%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Jagiellonia 3.85. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 30% | Jagiellonia 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 49% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.87 / Jagiellonia 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.168 / def 0.818 | Jagiellonia attack 1.364 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Jagiellonia xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Gornik Zabrze 2 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 49% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia?
Record (5 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 3W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.36x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
49%
2.06
25%
3.93
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
3.21
1.34
Jagiellonia xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
4%
25.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.34 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 22W 14D 20L from 56 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 21W 20D 15L across 56 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.48 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 12W 7D 8L from 27 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 5W 14D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.75 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 71%.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 22W 14D 20L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 21W 20D 15L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Jagiellonia away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.59 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 4-1 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Gornik Zabrze.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 44%, Jagiellonia 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Gornik Zabrze) and 59% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 78% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 59% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Jagiellonia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Jagiellonia 2-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.87 xG and Jagiellonia 1.34 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.17 / defence 0.82 against Jagiellonia attack 1.36 / defence 1.14, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 49% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 26%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 46%, Jagiellonia 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.43 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.