GKS Katowice 0-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 3 as GKS Katowice welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion ul. Bukowa. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 August 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, GKS Katowice have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. GKS Katowice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
GKS Katowice carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GKS Katowice 0.99 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GKS Katowice attack 0.822 / defence 1.240 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.006 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.086. Data: 2 GKS Katowice games / 36 Raków Częstochowa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GKS Katowice 27% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 45%. Fair-value odds: GKS Katowice 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Raków Częstochowa 2.22. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GKS Katowice (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion ul. Bukowa • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GKS Katowice 27% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG GKS Katowice 0.99 / Raków Częstochowa 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: GKS Katowice attack 0.822 / def 1.240 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.006 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
GKS Katowice xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Raków Częstochowa xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Stadion ul. Bukowa.
What was the final score in GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa?
GKS Katowice 0 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion ul. Bukowa.
What competition is GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives GKS Katowice a 27% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both GKS Katowice and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GKS Katowice and Raków Częstochowa in?
GKS Katowice (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GKS Katowice's attack rating (0.82) and Raków Częstochowa's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus GKS Katowice's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
27%
3.64
27%
3.64
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
GKS Katowice xG
Total xG
2.35
1.35
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
7%
14.09
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are GKS Katowice and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for GKS Katowice and 1.35 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GKS Katowice come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for GKS Katowice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: GKS Katowice on 1.50 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
GKS Katowice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 0%.
Defensively: GKS Katowice have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Raków Częstochowa in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GKS Katowice
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GKS Katowice and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
GKS Katowice have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have GKS Katowice or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
GKS Katowice have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Raków Częstochowa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
GKS Katowice's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
GKS Katowice
0
Draws
3
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Raków Częstochowa?
From 4 meetings on record, GKS Katowice have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GKS Katowice and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Raków Częstochowa 1-0 GKS Katowice.
Who has won more matches between GKS Katowice and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GKS Katowice home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GKS Katowice play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of GKS Katowice's recent matches and 0% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of GKS Katowice's recent games and 0% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GKS Katowice and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
GKS Katowice have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out GKS Katowice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat GKS Katowice 0-1 at Stadion ul. Bukowa, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 0.99 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.35 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GKS Katowice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 27% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 45%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 50%, Raków Częstochowa 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.50 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.