Cracovia Krakow 4-4 Ruch Chorzów – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Ruch Chorzów at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ruch Chorzów — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ruch Chorzów, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruch Chorzów's away record: 0W 3D 5L from 8 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 0.50 (Ruch Chorzów). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ruch Chorzów in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 50% versus Ruch Chorzów 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 31% | Ruch Chorzów 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.53 xG and Ruch Chorzów 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.884 / defence 1.229 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.728 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.199. Ruch Chorzów bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Cracovia Krakow games / 16 Ruch Chorzów games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 46% | Draw 29% | Ruch Chorzów 25%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Ruch Chorzów 4.00. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Ruch Chorzów 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 46% | Draw 29% | Ruch Chorzów 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.53 / Ruch Chorzów 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.884 / def 1.229 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.728 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ruch Chorzów xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów?
Cracovia Krakow 4 - 4 Ruch Chorzów.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 46% chance of winning, Ruch Chorzów a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Ruch Chorzów will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Ruch Chorzów?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Ruch Chorzów in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Ruch Chorzów (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Ruch Chorzów's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Ruch Chorzów's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.45
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.60
1.07
Ruch Chorzów xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
5%
18.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Ruch Chorzów expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.07 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 4W 7D 5L from 16 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruch Chorzów, meanwhile, have gone 1W 7D 8L across 16 games — 0.62 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ruch Chorzów is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cracovia Krakow by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruch Chorzów heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 2W 3D 3L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruch Chorzów's away record stands at 0W 3D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ruch Chorzów are on 0.94 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Ruch Chorzów in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 7D 8L in their last 16 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Ruch Chorzów away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.12 PPG; Ruch Chorzów away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Ruch Chorzów been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ruch Chorzów in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
1
Ruch Chorzów
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Ruch Chorzów?
From 2 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, Ruch Chorzów have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Ruch Chorzów last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Ruch Chorzów 2-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Ruch Chorzów?
Ruch Chorzów have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 62%, Ruch Chorzów 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cracovia Krakow) and 62% (Ruch Chorzów). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ruch Chorzów in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Ruch Chorzów away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Ruch Chorzów?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 50% of Ruch Chorzów's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Ruch Chorzów usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 62% of Ruch Chorzów's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Ruch Chorzów tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ruch Chorzów in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Ruch Chorzów share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Ruch Chorzów finished level at 4-4 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.53 xG and Ruch Chorzów 1.07 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ruch Chorzów outscored their 1.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.88 / defence 1.23 against Ruch Chorzów attack 0.73 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 46% | Draw 29% | Ruch Chorzów 25%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 31%, Ruch Chorzów 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.