Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cracovia Krakow face Lechia Gdansk.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cracovia Krakow welcome Lechia Gdansk to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 31). Kick-off is Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Cracovia Krakow have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lechia Gdansk have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.20 PPG versus Lechia Gdansk's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Lechia Gdansk's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 2 for Lechia Gdansk and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Lechia Gdansk — a Cracovia Krakow win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 77% and Lechia Gdansk 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 57% | Lechia Gdansk 53%). Note also that Lechia Gdansk surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Cracovia Krakow recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 64% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 2.07 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.058 / defence 1.310 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.866 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.238. Lechia Gdansk's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cracovia Krakow's projected output up. Cracovia Krakow's defence rating of 1.310 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lechia Gdansk's projected output up. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 64 games and Lechia Gdansk's last 30.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 53% | Draw 21% | Lechia Gdansk 26%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.89 | Draw 4.70 | Lechia Gdansk 3.87. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.07 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 53% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Lechia Gdansk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 80% (last 10 home games) | Lechia Gdansk 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 53% | Draw 21% | Lechia Gdansk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Cracovia Krakow 2.07 / Lechia Gdansk 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.058 / def 1.310 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.866 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Lechia Gdansk xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk FAQs
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 14:45 UK time on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 2 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 31) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 53% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.06) and Lechia Gdansk's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cracovia Krakow's last 64 games and Lechia Gdansk's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
53%
1.89
21%
4.70
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.47
1.40
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
3%
30.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.40 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 12W 9D 9L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 8W 6D 16L from 30 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Cracovia Krakow are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lechia Gdansk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.20 PPG from their last 15 home games (4W 6D 5L).
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 4D 9L from their last 15 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.13 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Lechia Gdansk in 63%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow (Home) vs Lechia Gdansk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk Form FAQs
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 12W 9D 9L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 8W 6D 16L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.20 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 6 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Aug 2021, when Lechia Gdansk won Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cracovia Krakow
2
Draws
3
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 February 2026: Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cracovia Krakow at 87%, Lechia Gdansk at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cracovia Krakow and 67% for Lechia Gdansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 80% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 67% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 87% of Lechia Gdansk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Cracovia Krakow 0-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 2.07 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.40 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.06 / defence 1.31 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.87 / defence 1.26, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 53% | Draw 21% | Lechia Gdansk 26%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 57%, Lechia Gdansk 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.