Piast Gliwice 0-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice host Radomiak Radom at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadion Miejski — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Radomiak Radom — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 2 for Radomiak Radom and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 47% versus Radomiak Radom 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 34% | Radomiak Radom 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.37 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.803 / defence 1.055 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.108 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.251. Data: 64 Piast Gliwice games / 64 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 35% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 40%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Radomiak Radom 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Radomiak Radom 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 35% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.37 / Radomiak Radom 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.803 / def 1.055 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.108 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Radomiak Radom xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 35% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom?
Record (6 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 0.80x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
35%
2.82
25%
3.99
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.83
1.46
Radomiak Radom xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.46 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 18W 27D 19L from 64 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 30L across 64 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.27 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 11W 14D 7L from 32 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 11W 4D 17L across 32 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.30 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 27D 19L in their last 64 games (1.27 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 20W 14D 30L in their last 64 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.47 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
4
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 47%, Radomiak Radom 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Piast Gliwice) and 62% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 28% of games; Radomiak Radom in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 47% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 62% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.37 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.46 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.80 / defence 1.05 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.11 / defence 1.09, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 35% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 40%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 34%, Radomiak Radom 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.27 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.