Arka Gdynia 2-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arka Gdynia at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 20 as Arka Gdynia welcome Legia Warszawa to Stadion Miejski w Gdyni. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Arka Gdynia have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arka Gdynia's home record at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni: 6W 2D 1L from 9 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Arka Gdynia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Arka Gdynia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Arka Gdynia register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Arka Gdynia, 0 for Legia Warszawa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Arka Gdynia trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arka Gdynia 44% versus Legia Warszawa 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arka Gdynia 50% | Legia Warszawa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arka Gdynia 1.53 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arka Gdynia attack 0.926 / defence 1.074 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.886 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.233. Data: 18 Arka Gdynia games / 53 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 45% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 28%. Fair-value odds: Arka Gdynia 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Legia Warszawa 3.57. Arka Gdynia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Arka Gdynia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arka Gdynia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arka Gdynia 67% | Legia Warszawa 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 45% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Arka Gdynia 1.53 / Legia Warszawa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Arka Gdynia attack 0.926 / def 1.074 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.886 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Arka Gdynia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Arka Gdynia xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Legia Warszawa xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What was the final score in Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa?
Arka Gdynia 2 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What competition is Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Arka Gdynia a 45% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Arka Gdynia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Arka Gdynia and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Legia Warszawa?
Record (1 meetings): Arka Gdynia 0W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 0W.
What form are Arka Gdynia and Legia Warszawa in?
Arka Gdynia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Arka Gdynia's attack at 0.93x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Arka Gdynia's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arka Gdynia Win
45%
2.25
27%
3.67
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Arka Gdynia xG
Total xG
2.70
1.17
Legia Warszawa xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
6%
16.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Arka Gdynia and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.17 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arka Gdynia's recent record stands at 6W 3D 9L from 18 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Arka Gdynia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 8L across 18 games — 0.89 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arka Gdynia on 1.17 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arka Gdynia have managed 6W 1D 1L from 8 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Arka Gdynia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 0W 3D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arka Gdynia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arka Gdynia are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.00 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arka Gdynia
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arka Gdynia and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Arka Gdynia have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 7D 8L in their last 18 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arka Gdynia at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Arka Gdynia's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arka Gdynia at home: 2.38 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arka Gdynia
2
Draws
0
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Legia Warszawa?
From 2 meetings on record, Arka Gdynia have won 0, Legia Warszawa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arka Gdynia and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Arka Gdynia 2-2 Legia Warszawa.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Arka Gdynia at 62%, Legia Warszawa at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Arka Gdynia) and 38% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Arka Gdynia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arka Gdynia home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arka Gdynia play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Arka Gdynia's games and 75% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Arka Gdynia's recent games and 38% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arka Gdynia and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Arka Gdynia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arka Gdynia and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 20, as Arka Gdynia and Legia Warszawa drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.53 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 18/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 45% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 28%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 50%, Legia Warszawa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arka Gdynia 1.17 PPG, Legia Warszawa 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.