Viking 1-0 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Viking face KFUM Oslo.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SR-Bank Arena plays host to Viking versus KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Viking's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Viking have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KFUM Oslo (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
KFUM Oslo's away record over their last 9 away games: 5W 3D 1L (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Viking's last 10 home games and KFUM Oslo's last 9 away games) — Viking have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, KFUM Oslo in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Viking edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Jul 2024, ended Viking 2–1 KFUM Oslo — a Viking win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
KFUM Oslo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 65% and KFUM Oslo 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 60% | KFUM Oslo 45%). Note also that KFUM Oslo surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Viking recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.77 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.301 / defence 0.962 | KFUM Oslo attack 1.037 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.292. Viking carry an above-average attack rating of 1.301 — their 1.77 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Viking's last 51 games and KFUM Oslo's last 20.
Result probabilities: Viking 49% | Draw 23% | KFUM Oslo 28%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.05 | Draw 4.29 | KFUM Oslo 3.58. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and KFUM Oslo's last 9 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 70% (last 10 home games) | KFUM Oslo 67% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 22 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 49% | Draw 23% | KFUM Oslo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Viking 1.77 / KFUM Oslo 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.301 / def 0.962 | KFUM Oslo attack 1.037 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Viking (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.29
KFUM Oslo xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Viking vs KFUM Oslo FAQs
What time does Viking vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Viking vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs KFUM Oslo?
Viking 1 - 0 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Viking vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Viking vs KFUM Oslo is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 22) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 49% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Viking and KFUM Oslo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Viking vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (1.04x) against Viking's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Viking's last 51 games and KFUM Oslo's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
49%
2.05
23%
4.29
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Viking xG
Total xG
3.06
1.29
KFUM Oslo xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
5%
21.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Viking vs KFUM Oslo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Viking and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Viking and 1.29 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking's recent record stands at 9W 7D 4L from 20 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five.
KFUM Oslo, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 5L across 20 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Viking against 1.45 for KFUM Oslo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Viking have managed 6W 2D 1L from their last 9 home games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Viking are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
KFUM Oslo's away record stands at 5W 3D 1L across their last 9 away games, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.45 PPG overall record — KFUM Oslo travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; KFUM Oslo in 60%.
Defensively: KFUM Oslo in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Viking (Home) vs KFUM Oslo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Viking
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
❓ Viking vs KFUM Oslo Form FAQs
What form are Viking and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 9W 7D 4L in their last 20 games (1.70 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 7W 8D 5L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Viking's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.22 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Viking or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 5-1 KFUM Oslo on 8 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Viking
1
Draws
0
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Viking vs KFUM Oslo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and KFUM Oslo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Viking have won 5, KFUM Oslo have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Viking and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Viking 5-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Viking and KFUM Oslo?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Viking, 67% for KFUM Oslo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Viking) and 56% (KFUM Oslo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; KFUM Oslo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Viking vs KFUM Oslo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Viking and KFUM Oslo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Viking's games and 67% of KFUM Oslo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Viking and KFUM Oslo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Viking's matches and 56% of KFUM Oslo's.
Do Viking and KFUM Oslo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Viking's recent matches and 78% of KFUM Oslo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out KFUM Oslo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat KFUM Oslo 1-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.77 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.29 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KFUM Oslo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.30 / defence 0.96 against KFUM Oslo attack 1.04 / defence 0.90, drawn from 51/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 49% | Draw 23% | KFUM Oslo 28%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 60%, KFUM Oslo 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.70 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.