Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ham-Kam have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ham-Kam away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 0.80 PPG lead over Ham-Kam (2.30 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 1 for Ham-Kam and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Ham-Kam winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 59% versus Ham-Kam 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 63% | Ham-Kam 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.37 xG and Ham-Kam 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.656 / defence 0.810 | Ham-Kam attack 0.963 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.303. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.656 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Bodo/Glimt games / 51 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 67% | Draw 18% | Ham-Kam 15%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Ham-Kam 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Ham-Kam 50% BTTS from recent games.

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