Stromsgodset 1-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Rosenborg at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Stromsgodset are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stromsgodset register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rosenborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 3, Rosenborg 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 3–1 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 48% versus Rosenborg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 55% | Rosenborg 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.75 xG and Rosenborg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.016 / defence 0.922 | Rosenborg attack 1.097 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.363. Data: 31 Stromsgodset games / 31 Rosenborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 46% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Rosenborg 3.33. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Rosenborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 46% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Stromsgodset 1.75 / Rosenborg 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.016 / def 0.922 | Rosenborg attack 1.097 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Rosenborg xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Stromsgodset 1 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg part of?
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 46% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Stromsgodset and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
Record (6 meetings): Stromsgodset 3W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 2W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (1.02) and Rosenborg's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
46%
2.16
23%
4.29
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.13
1.38
Rosenborg xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
5%
18.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.38 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 9D 29L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.58 PPG from 60 outings (27W 14D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.25 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 15W 3D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (8W 9D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.92 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 22W 9D 29L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Rosenborg away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.60 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 4, Rosenborg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 57%, Rosenborg at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stromsgodset and 73% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Stromsgodset's games and 73% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stromsgodset's matches and 73% of Rosenborg's.
Do Stromsgodset and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stromsgodset edge out Rosenborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Rosenborg 1-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.75 xG and Rosenborg 1.38 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Rosenborg attack 1.10 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 46% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 30%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 55%, Rosenborg 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.25 PPG, Rosenborg 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.