Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 2 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome ODD Ballklubb to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sarpsborg 08 FF) versus 1.20 (ODD Ballklubb). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% and ODD Ballklubb 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | ODD Ballklubb 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.01 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.137 / defence 1.069 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.050 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.363. Data: 31 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 31 ODD Ballklubb games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 49% | Draw 22% | ODD Ballklubb 30%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | ODD Ballklubb 3.33. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 90% | ODD Ballklubb 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 49% | Draw 22% | ODD Ballklubb 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.01 / ODD Ballklubb 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.137 / def 1.069 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.050 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.53
ODD Ballklubb xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 49% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (8 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 3W | Draws 4 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 1.14x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
49%
2.05
22%
4.64
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.54
1.53
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
4%
25.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.53 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 24W 10D 26L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 23W 14D 23L from 60 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.37 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.57 PPG from 30 outings (14W 5D 11L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 8W 9D 13L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.42 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 24W 10D 26L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.57 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
5
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 73%, ODD Ballklubb 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 57% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 57% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.01 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.53 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 49% | Draw 22% | ODD Ballklubb 30%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, ODD Ballklubb 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.37 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.