Stabaek 2-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 45%, yet in-form Stromsgodset provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stabaek host Stromsgodset at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stabaek — All Games: 1W 2D 1L from 4 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.25 points per game. Last five: D D W L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Stabaek have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 2W 2D 0L from 4 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Stromsgodset have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stromsgodset — 0.75 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.25). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Stabaek in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 50% and Stromsgodset 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 50% | Stromsgodset 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.58 xG and Stromsgodset 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.858 / defence 0.819 | Stromsgodset attack 0.969 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.606. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Stabaek's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Stabaek games / 4 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 45% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 31%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Stromsgodset 3.23. Stabaek hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stabaek are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stromsgodset (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 50% | Stromsgodset 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 45% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Stabaek 1.58 / Stromsgodset 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.858 / def 0.819 | Stromsgodset attack 0.969 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.606 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Stromsgodset xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 July 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Stabaek 2 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Stabaek vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Stromsgodset part of?
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 45% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stabaek and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stabaek and Stromsgodset in?
Stabaek (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.86) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
45%
2.24
25%
4.06
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.86
1.27
Stromsgodset xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
6%
15.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.27 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 1W 2D 1L record — D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stabaek, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stromsgodset's form line: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Stromsgodset, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Stromsgodset are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 75%.
Defensively: Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Early Season
Stromsgodset
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Stabaek or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Stromsgodset runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2020, when Stabaek won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stabaek
1
Draws
3
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Stromsgodset?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2023, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 50%, Stromsgodset 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stabaek) and 50% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Stabaek's games and 75% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stabaek vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stabaek's recent games and 50% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stabaek cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Stromsgodset 2-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.58 xG and Stromsgodset 1.27 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stromsgodset landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.86 / defence 0.82 against Stromsgodset attack 0.97 / defence 1.32, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 45% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 31%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 50%, Stromsgodset 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Stromsgodset arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Stabaek winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stabaek conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.