Stabaek 2-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Sandefjord travel to Nadderud Stadion to take on Stabaek. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stabaek stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Nadderud Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sandefjord — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Stabaek) versus 1.10 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Stabaek, 1 for Sandefjord and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stabaek trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Sandefjord trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 46% versus Sandefjord 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 50% | Sandefjord 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.57 xG and Sandefjord 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.702 / defence 1.072 | Sandefjord attack 1.242 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.357. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Stabaek's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sandefjord have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Stabaek games / 58 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 34% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 44%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Sandefjord 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 30% | Sandefjord 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 34% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Stabaek 1.57 / Sandefjord 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.702 / def 1.072 | Sandefjord attack 1.242 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Sandefjord xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Sandefjord kick off?
Stabaek vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Stabaek 2 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Stabaek vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Sandefjord part of?
Stabaek vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 34% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Stabaek and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Sandefjord?
Record (5 meetings): Stabaek 2W | Draws 2 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Sandefjord in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stabaek's attack at 0.70x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
34%
2.96
23%
4.43
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Stabaek xG
Total xG
3.38
1.81
Sandefjord xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
6%
18.05
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.81 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stabaek come into this having played 28 games, going 6W 8D 14L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.00 PPG from 28 outings (7W 7D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 0.93 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stabaek's home form reads 5W 3D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.57 points per game from 14 outings (2W 2D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stabaek come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.61 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 6W 8D 14L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 7W 7D 14L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Sandefjord away?
Stabaek's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.29 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Sandefjord runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Stabaek won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stabaek
2
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Sandefjord?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 3, Sandefjord have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when Stabaek 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Sandefjord?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 29%, Sandefjord 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stabaek) and 64% (Sandefjord).
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 50% of games; Sandefjord in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Stabaek's recent matches and 57% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stabaek's recent games and 64% of Sandefjord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stabaek defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Sandefjord 2-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.57 xG and Sandefjord 1.81 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.70 / defence 1.07 against Sandefjord attack 1.24 / defence 1.28, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 34% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 44%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Stabaek win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 50%, Sandefjord 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 0.93 PPG, Sandefjord 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stabaek win broke the near-deadlock. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.