Rosenborg 1-3 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Stromsgodset travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rosenborg's home record at Lerkendal Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stromsgodset's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Rosenborg) versus 1.30 (Stromsgodset). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Rosenborg, 2 for Stromsgodset and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 1–0 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Stromsgodset trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 66% versus Stromsgodset 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 72% | Stromsgodset 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.44 xG and Stromsgodset 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.040 / defence 0.901 | Stromsgodset attack 0.695 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.357. Stromsgodset's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Rosenborg games / 58 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 51% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 22%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Stromsgodset 4.55. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Stromsgodset 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 51% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Rosenborg 1.44 / Stromsgodset 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.040 / def 0.901 | Stromsgodset attack 0.695 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Stromsgodset xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg 1 - 3 Stromsgodset.
Where is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset part of?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 51% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rosenborg and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Record (5 meetings): Rosenborg 2W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 2W.
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.04) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.72
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.29
0.85
Stromsgodset xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
5%
19.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.85 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 26W 14D 18L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 20W 9D 29L from 58 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.14 PPG from 29 outings (19W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 6W 6D 17L from 29 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.29 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 26W 14D 18L in their last 58 games (1.59 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 20W 9D 29L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Stromsgodset away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.14 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
1
Draws
4
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 59%, Stromsgodset 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Rosenborg) and 41% (Stromsgodset). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 38% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Rosenborg's matches and 41% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Rosenborg and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Rosenborg 1-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.44 xG and Stromsgodset 0.85 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Stromsgodset attack 0.69 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 51% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 22%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Stromsgodset win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 72%, Stromsgodset 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.