Stabaek 3-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 45%, yet in-form Haugesund provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 3 as Stabaek welcome Haugesund to Nadderud Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stabaek — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stabaek haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Stabaek at Nadderud Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Haugesund — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Stabaek have won 2, Haugesund 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Stabaek winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stabaek in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 60% and Haugesund 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 73% | Haugesund 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.26 xG and Haugesund 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.687 / defence 0.988 | Haugesund attack 0.882 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.031. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Stabaek games / 32 Haugesund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 45% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 26%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Haugesund 3.85. Stabaek hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stabaek are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haugesund (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 60% | Haugesund 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 45% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Stabaek 1.26 / Haugesund 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.687 / def 0.988 | Haugesund attack 0.882 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Haugesund xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Haugesund kick off?
Stabaek vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Stabaek 3 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Stabaek vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Haugesund part of?
Stabaek vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 45% chance of winning, Haugesund a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Stabaek and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Haugesund?
Record (4 meetings): Stabaek 2W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Haugesund in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.47
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.16
0.90
Haugesund xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Stabaek and 0.90 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Stabaek have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 6W 7D 17L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. Stabaek haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Haugesund's form line: 10W 8D 12L from 30 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Haugesund are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.40 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stabaek have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Haugesund in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Haugesund away?
Haugesund's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.00 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Haugesund runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Stabaek won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stabaek
1
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Haugesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 3, Haugesund have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when Haugesund 3-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Haugesund?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 47%, Haugesund 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stabaek and 53% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 40% of games; Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Stabaek's recent matches and 53% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stabaek's matches and 53% of Haugesund's.
Do Stabaek and Haugesund tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stabaek run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Haugesund 3-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.26 xG and Haugesund 0.90 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stabaek beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.69 / defence 0.99 against Haugesund attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 45% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 26%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 73%, Haugesund 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Haugesund arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Stabaek winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.