Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Stabaek.

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Full Analysis

Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Stabaek haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Stabaek's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Bodo/Glimt's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stabaek in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Bodo/Glimt, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Stabaek — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 3–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.

Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 70% and Stabaek 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 73% | Stabaek 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.29 xG and Stabaek 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.225 / defence 1.064 | Stabaek attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.078. Data: 31 Bodo/Glimt games / 1 Stabaek games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 67% | Draw 18% | Stabaek 15%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Stabaek 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Stabaek 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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