Sandefjord 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 15 as Sandefjord welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 July 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Jotun Arena: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Jotun Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.50 (Sarpsborg 08 FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 3 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 57% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 64% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.60 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.486 / defence 0.680 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.044 / defence 0.664. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.273. Sandefjord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.486 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence strength of 0.664 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sandefjord's defence rating of 0.680 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Sandefjord games / 44 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 54% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 21%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.76. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 30% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 54% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Sandefjord 1.60 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.486 / def 0.680 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.044 / def 0.664 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sandefjord 3 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 54% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (6 meetings): Sandefjord 2W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3W.
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.49x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
54%
1.87
25%
3.97
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.50
0.90
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
4%
23.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.90 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 44 games, going 17W 7D 20L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sarpsborg 08 FF sit at 1.34 PPG from 44 outings (15W 14D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.32 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandefjord's home form reads 14W 2D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken 1.59 points per game from 22 outings (9W 8D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.50 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 17W 7D 20L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 15W 14D 15L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sandefjord's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 2.00 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jul 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sandefjord
1
Draws
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 50%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Sandefjord and 64% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sandefjord's games and 68% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sandefjord's matches and 64% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.60 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.90 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.49 / defence 0.68 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.04 / defence 0.66, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 54% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 21%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 64%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.32 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.