Sandefjord 1-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sandefjord (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sandefjord face ODD Ballklubb.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb meet at Jotun Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sandefjord (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord at Jotun Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sandefjord's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Sandefjord 4W, ODD Ballklubb 2W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
ODD Ballklubb — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 63% versus ODD Ballklubb 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 63% | ODD Ballklubb 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.84 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.051 / defence 1.064 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.765 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.289. Data: 57 Sandefjord games / 57 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 56% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 21%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | ODD Ballklubb 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 70% | ODD Ballklubb 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 56% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Sandefjord 1.84 / ODD Ballklubb 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.051 / def 1.064 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.765 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.05
ODD Ballklubb xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Sandefjord 1 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 56% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (9 meetings): Sandefjord 4W | Draws 3 | ODD Ballklubb 2W.
What form are Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sandefjord's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.77x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.41
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.89
1.05
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
3%
29.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.05 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 15W 14D 28L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 15W 16D 26L from 57 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.07 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (12W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 8D 15L from 28 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sandefjord are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.18 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 15W 14D 28L in their last 57 games (1.04 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 15W 16D 26L in their last 57 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.54 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-1 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Sandefjord 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 61%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Sandefjord and 57% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sandefjord's games and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sandefjord's matches and 57% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out ODD Ballklubb 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat ODD Ballklubb 1-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.84 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.05 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord fell 0.8 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.77 / defence 1.15, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 56% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 21%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 63%, ODD Ballklubb 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.04 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.