Sandefjord 2-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 4 as Sandefjord welcome Ham-Kam to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Jotun Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ham-Kam — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 0.90 (Ham-Kam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ham-Kam, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Sandefjord.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Ham-Kam have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 60% versus Ham-Kam 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 62% | Ham-Kam 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.03 xG and Ham-Kam 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.139 / defence 0.859 | Ham-Kam attack 0.848 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.329. Data: 33 Sandefjord games / 33 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 62% | Draw 21% | Ham-Kam 17%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Ham-Kam 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 60% | Ham-Kam 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 62% | Draw 21% | Ham-Kam 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Sandefjord 2.03 / Ham-Kam 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.139 / def 0.859 | Ham-Kam attack 0.848 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ham-Kam xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Sandefjord 2 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam part of?
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 62% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sandefjord and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
Record (6 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 5W.
What form are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.81
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.00
0.97
Ham-Kam xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
13%
7.63
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
2%
44.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.97 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 17W 14D 29L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Ham-Kam's form line: 18W 13D 29L from 60 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.08 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (13W 7D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 8W 6D 16L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.22 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Ham-Kam away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.53 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Ham-Kam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
2
Draws
6
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sandefjord 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 57%, Ham-Kam 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sandefjord) and 57% (Ham-Kam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord have failed to score in 27% of games; Ham-Kam in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sandefjord's games and 53% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sandefjord's matches and 57% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Sandefjord and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Ham-Kam 2-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.03 xG and Ham-Kam 0.97 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ham-Kam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.14 / defence 0.86 against Ham-Kam attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 62% | Draw 21% | Ham-Kam 17%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 62%, Ham-Kam 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.08 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.