Haugesund 2-3 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Valerenga (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Haugesund face Valerenga.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Stadion plays host to Haugesund versus Valerenga in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 24 August 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Valerenga (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Valerenga have posted 3W 1D 5L from 9 away outings — 1.11 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Valerenga are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Haugesund lead 2W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 0–3 with Valerenga winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Valerenga half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 33% versus Valerenga 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 61% | Valerenga 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.29 xG and Valerenga 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.651 / defence 1.338 | Valerenga attack 0.855 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.335. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.651 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Valerenga bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Haugesund games / 18 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 31% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 42%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Valerenga 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Haugesund 20% | Valerenga 44% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 31% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Haugesund 1.29 / Valerenga 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.651 / def 1.338 | Valerenga attack 0.855 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Valerenga xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Valerenga kick off?
Haugesund vs Valerenga kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Haugesund 2 - 3 Valerenga.
Where is Haugesund vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Valerenga part of?
Haugesund vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 31% chance of winning, Valerenga a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Haugesund and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Valerenga?
Record (9 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 3 | Valerenga 4W.
What form are Haugesund and Valerenga in?
Haugesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Valerenga's attack (0.85x) against Haugesund's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
31%
3.20
27%
3.71
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.82
1.53
Valerenga xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
7%
14.76
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.53 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Haugesund's recent record stands at 1W 2D 15L from 18 games, a 0.28 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 8L across 18 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 1W 2D 6L from 9 games — 0.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 3W 1D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haugesund are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.56 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 1W 2D 15L in their last 18 games (0.28 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 7W 3D 8L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Valerenga away?
Valerenga's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 0.56 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valerenga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haugesund
3
Draws
5
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Valerenga have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Valerenga see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Haugesund) and 44% (Valerenga) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Haugesund) and 33% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Valerenga in 33%; Haugesund have failed to score in 78% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Valerenga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Haugesund's recent matches and 44% of Valerenga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Haugesund's recent games and 33% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Valerenga edge out Haugesund 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Haugesund 2-3 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.29 xG and Valerenga 1.53 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Valerenga outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.65 / defence 1.34 against Valerenga attack 0.85 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 31% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 42%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 61%, Valerenga 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.28. Form held, and they took the win. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.44 average — above their attacking norm. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.