Ham-Kam 0-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Briskeby Arena this season.
Fredrikstad have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 4W 2D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 50% versus Fredrikstad 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 43% | Fredrikstad 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.15 xG and Fredrikstad 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.781 / defence 0.859 | Fredrikstad attack 0.975 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.408. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Ham-Kam games / 14 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 34% | Draw 30% | Fredrikstad 36%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Fredrikstad 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 30% | Fredrikstad 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 34% | Draw 30% | Fredrikstad 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Ham-Kam 1.15 / Fredrikstad 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.781 / def 0.859 | Fredrikstad attack 0.975 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fredrikstad xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
Ham-Kam 0 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad part of?
Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 34% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Fredrikstad (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.78) and Fredrikstad's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.97x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 45/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
34%
2.94
30%
3.30
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.33
1.18
Fredrikstad xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
11%
8.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.18 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 4W 4D 6L from 14 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 3L across 14 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ham-Kam heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fredrikstad's away record stands at 3W 1D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Fredrikstad away?
Fredrikstad's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 0.83 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
3
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 0, Fredrikstad have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Fredrikstad 2-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 33%, Fredrikstad 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ham-Kam) and 67% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 33%; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 50% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 67% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out Ham-Kam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Ham-Kam 0-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.15 xG and Fredrikstad 1.18 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.78 / defence 0.86 against Fredrikstad attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 34% | Draw 30% | Fredrikstad 36%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 43%, Fredrikstad 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.