Bodo/Glimt 3-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face ODD Ballklubb.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 15 as Bodo/Glimt welcome ODD Ballklubb to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 July 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bodo/Glimt: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for ODD Ballklubb, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2023, ended 2–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 58% versus ODD Ballklubb 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 64% | ODD Ballklubb 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.15 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.405 / defence 0.779 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.751 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.398. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Bodo/Glimt games / 45 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 67% | Draw 20% | ODD Ballklubb 12%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | ODD Ballklubb 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 67% | Draw 20% | ODD Ballklubb 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 50% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.15 / ODD Ballklubb 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.405 / def 0.779 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.751 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.82
ODD Ballklubb xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 19 July 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Bodo/Glimt 3 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 67% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (8 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 5W | Draws 1 | ODD Ballklubb 2W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
67%
1.49
20%
4.88
12%
8.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.97
0.82
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
8.14
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
1%
69.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.82 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 45 games, going 32W 7D 6L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.16 PPG from 45 outings (13W 13D 19L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 16W 5D 1L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.27 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 32W 7D 6L in their last 45 games (2.29 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.41 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 54%, ODD Ballklubb 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Bodo/Glimt) and 59% (ODD Ballklubb). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 32%; ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 54% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 59% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat ODD Ballklubb 3-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.15 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.82 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.41 / defence 0.78 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.75 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 67% | Draw 20% | ODD Ballklubb 12%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 64%, ODD Ballklubb 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.