Fredrikstad 2-0 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Valerenga travel to Fredrikstad Stadion to take on Fredrikstad. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 April 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Fredrikstad have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fredrikstad have posted 5W 4D 1L at Fredrikstad Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fredrikstad Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Valerenga haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Valerenga's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fredrikstad are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Fredrikstad trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Valerenga trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 40% versus Valerenga 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Valerenga 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.88 xG and Valerenga 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 1.105 / defence 0.831 | Valerenga attack 0.841 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.159. Data: 32 Fredrikstad games / 2 Valerenga games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 16%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Valerenga 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 40% | Valerenga 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG Fredrikstad 1.88 / Valerenga 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 1.105 / def 0.831 | Valerenga attack 0.841 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Valerenga xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Valerenga kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Valerenga kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 9 April 2025 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Valerenga?
Fredrikstad 2 - 0 Valerenga.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Valerenga part of?
Fredrikstad vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 63% chance of winning, Valerenga a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fredrikstad and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Valerenga?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fredrikstad and Valerenga in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (1.10) and Valerenga's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.59
16%
6.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.69
0.81
Valerenga xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
6.43
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
2%
42.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 0.81 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 14W 9D 7L from 30 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 15L across 30 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. Valerenga haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valerenga heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 7W 6D 2L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 5W 4D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 67%.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Current Season
Valerenga
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Valerenga away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.80 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Valerenga in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fredrikstad and Valerenga runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Fredrikstad's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
0
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Valerenga?
From 3 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 1, Valerenga have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-1 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Valerenga?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 40%, Valerenga 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fredrikstad) and 53% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Valerenga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 67% of Valerenga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 53% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Valerenga tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fredrikstad cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Valerenga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Valerenga 2-0 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.88 xG and Valerenga 0.81 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Valerenga landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.10 / defence 0.83 against Valerenga attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 16%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Valerenga 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.