Brann 2-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Brann (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brann face Lillestrom.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Lillestrom meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brann have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Brann Stadion this season.
Lillestrom (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Brann's 2.50 PPG return is 2.10 points per game ahead of Lillestrom's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Brann have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lillestrom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Brann, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Lillestrom — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Brann winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Brann and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 56% versus Lillestrom 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 60% | Lillestrom 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 2.83 xG and Lillestrom 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.279 / defence 0.851 | Lillestrom attack 0.809 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.288. Brann carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 2.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lillestrom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Brann's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Brann games / 57 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 77% | Draw 14% | Lillestrom 9%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.30 | Draw 7.14 | Lillestrom 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Brann (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brann 60% | Lillestrom 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 77% | Draw 14% | Lillestrom 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 55% | xG Brann 2.83 / Lillestrom 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.279 / def 0.851 | Lillestrom attack 0.809 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Brann (77%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.83
Brann xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Lillestrom xG
55%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Lillestrom kick off?
Brann vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Lillestrom?
Brann 2 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Brann vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Lillestrom part of?
Brann vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 77% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Brann and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Lillestrom?
Record (5 meetings): Brann 3W | Draws 2 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Brann and Lillestrom in?
Brann (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Lillestrom (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Brann vs Lillestrom?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brann's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.83. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.81x) against Brann's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
77%
1.29
14%
7.34
9%
11.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.83
Brann xG
Total xG
3.72
0.89
Lillestrom xG
1.29
77%
Home win
7.34
14%
Draw
11.16
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
6%
16.93
Win to Nil
32%
3.14
1%
188.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Brann and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Brann and 0.89 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Brann have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 35W 11D 11L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 20W 7D 30L from 57 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lillestrom.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brann have posted 2.29 PPG from 28 outings (20W 4D 4L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 8W 3D 17L from 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.39 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Brann have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 35W 11D 11L in their last 57 games (2.04 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 20W 7D 30L in their last 57 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Lillestrom away?
Brann's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.29 PPG; Lillestrom away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Brann or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Brann
2
Draws
0
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Lillestrom?
From 6 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Lillestrom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Brann 2-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Lillestrom?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 57%, Lillestrom 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Brann and 61% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lillestrom in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Lillestrom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Brann's recent matches and 50% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Brann's matches and 61% of Lillestrom's.
Do Brann and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Lillestrom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Lillestrom 2-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.83 xG and Lillestrom 0.89 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Brann fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.28 / defence 0.85 against Lillestrom attack 0.81 / defence 1.44, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 77% | Draw 14% | Lillestrom 9%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Lillestrom 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Lillestrom's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.