Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Lillestrom have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lillestrom away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Lillestrom's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Lillestrom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Lillestrom — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 50% versus Lillestrom 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 50% | Lillestrom 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.98 xG and Lillestrom 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.045 / defence 0.787 | Lillestrom attack 1.192 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.235. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Bodo/Glimt games / 26 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 54% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 20%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Lillestrom 5.00. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Lillestrom 90% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights