Stabaek vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Lillestrom in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's home record at Nadderud Stadion: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Lillestrom have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Lillestrom are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Stabaek 0W, Lillestrom 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stabaek — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 62% and Lillestrom 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 73% | Lillestrom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.27 xG and Lillestrom 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.672 / defence 1.290 | Lillestrom attack 1.194 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.228. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Stabaek games / 26 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 24% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 50%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Lillestrom 2.00. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 50% | Lillestrom 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 24% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Stabaek 1.27 / Lillestrom 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.672 / def 1.290 | Lillestrom attack 1.194 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Lillestrom xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Lillestrom kick off?
Stabaek vs Lillestrom kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Lillestrom part of?
Stabaek vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 24% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stabaek and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Lillestrom?
Record (2 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 2W.
What form are Stabaek and Lillestrom in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.19x) against Stabaek's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
24%
4.22
27%
3.76
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Stabaek xG
Total xG
3.17
1.89
Lillestrom xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
15%
6.62
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
4%
27.97
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.89 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Stabaek have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 5W 6D 15L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 12W 6D 8L from 26 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 6W 3D 4L from 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.54 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stabaek have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Lillestrom in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 5W 6D 15L in their last 26 games (0.81 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 12W 6D 8L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 0.92 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 3-0 on 27 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stabaek
0
Draws
3
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Lillestrom?
From 4 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Lillestrom have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Stabaek 1-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 46% for Stabaek, 85% for Lillestrom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Stabaek and 77% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Stabaek's games and 85% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stabaek vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Stabaek's matches and 77% of Lillestrom's.
Do Stabaek and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek and Lillestrom finished level at 0-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.27 xG and Lillestrom 1.89 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.67 / defence 1.29 against Lillestrom attack 1.19 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 24% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 50%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 73%, Lillestrom 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.