Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aalesund face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt meet at Color Line Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund at Color Line Stadion this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bodo/Glimt are the stronger side — 1.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Bodo/Glimt, who have claimed 7 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Aalesund — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 76% versus Bodo/Glimt 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aalesund 62% | Bodo/Glimt 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.41 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 1.083 / defence 1.508 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.313 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.401. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — the away xG of 2.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Aalesund games / 49 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 17% | Draw 17% | Bodo/Glimt 66%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 5.88 | Draw 5.88 | Bodo/Glimt 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.18. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.18 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.18 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 90% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 17% | Draw 17% | Bodo/Glimt 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 71% | xG Aalesund 1.41 / Bodo/Glimt 2.77 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 1.083 / def 1.508 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.313 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
2.77
Bodo/Glimt xG
71%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Color Line Stadion.
Where is Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 17% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 66% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (7 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 7W.
What form are Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Aalesund's attack at 1.08x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.31x) against Aalesund's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 2.77.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (7.7%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
17%
5.87
17%
5.87
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.7%
Away win
1 – 1
6.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Aalesund xG
Total xG
4.18
2.77
Bodo/Glimt xG
5.87
17%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
6%
16.04
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
1%
94.12
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Aalesund and 2.77 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 4.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Aalesund have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 9D 8L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 17W 2D 2L from 21 games, 2.52 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Aalesund have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 2D 1L from 11 away games — 2.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.67 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 4W 9D 8L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 17W 2D 2L in their last 21 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.09 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.36 PPG.
Have Aalesund or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 on 8 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Aalesund
0
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 91% for Aalesund, 54% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Aalesund and 73% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 91% of Aalesund's games and 54% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Aalesund's matches and 73% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.